Tennis · M25 Kigali · 07/10, 10:00
Prediction: Max Houkes vs Rodrigo Alujas
Team pages: Max Houkes · Rodrigo Alujas
Prediction summary
Winner
Max Houkes
Rodrigo Alujas
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Max Houkes
7-3 (W-L)
Rodrigo Alujas
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Max Houkes
1–0
Rodrigo Alujas
(1 last)
- 19 Feb2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Max Houkes 1608 · Rodrigo Alujas 1507
| Max Houkes | Rodrigo Alujas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 93% | 7% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Max Houkes (rating 1608 vs 1507).
- Max Houkes is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Max Houkes 1–0 Rodrigo Alujas (1).
Statistics
| Max Houkes | Rodrigo Alujas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (6) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.4 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-7.2 | 10-10.6 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 1 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 74.8% | 62.8% |
| Break % | 64.9% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
H2H · Max Houkes 1 – 0 Rodrigo Alujas (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Max Houkes 1–0 Rodrigo Alujas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/25 Challenger Brazzaville | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Max Houkes
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Benjamin Lock M25 Kigali |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 02/10 | Alec Beckley M25 Kigali |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 01/10 | Allan Gatoto M25 Kigali |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/09 | Darrshan Suresh M25 Kigali |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/09 | Walid Ahouda M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/09 | Ioannis Xilas M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 10/09 | Mehdi Benchakroun M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/09 | Diogo Morais M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 06/09 | Karim Bennani M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Rodrigo Alujas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Calvin Hemery M25 Kigali |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Mehluli Don Ayanda Sibanda M25 Kigali |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Martin Antonio Vergara del Puerto M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Nicolas Garcia Longo M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/08 | Federico Aguilar Cardozo M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 30/07 | Alvin Nicholas Tudorica M15 Huamantla · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-17 | L |
| 28/07 | Preston Brown M15 Huamantla · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/07 | Daniel Jade M25 Uriage |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Damien Clerc M25 Uriage |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Max Houkes vs Rodrigo Alujas?
Our model gives 80% to Max Houkes, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.