Tennis · W100 Templeton · 02/10, 20:00
Prediction: Ella Mcdonald vs Kristina Penickova
Team pages: Ella Mcdonald · Kristina Penickova
Prediction summary
Winner
Ella Mcdonald
Kristina Penickova
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Ella Mcdonald
7-3 (W-L)
Kristina Penickova
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ella Mcdonald 1589 · Kristina Penickova 1516
| Ella Mcdonald | Kristina Penickova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ella Mcdonald (rating 1589 vs 1516).
- Ella Mcdonald is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Ella Mcdonald makes many double faults (5.7/match).
- Note: Kristina Penickova makes many double faults (6.6/match).
Statistics
| Ella Mcdonald | Kristina Penickova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-8.7 | 10.9-11.2 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 5.7 | 6.6 |
| 1st serve % | 66.1% | 62.4% |
| Break % | 41.6% | 49.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ella Mcdonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Whitney Osuigwe W100 Templeton |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Savannah Broadus W100 Templeton |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/09 | Arina Bulatova W100 Templeton |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 29/09 | Katherine Hui W100 Templeton |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/09 | Kayla Day W50 Berkeley |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Madison Brengle W50 Berkeley |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Savannah Broadus W50 Berkeley |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Katherine Hui W50 Berkeley |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Amelia Rajecki W35 Roehampton · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 08/08 | Emily Appleton W35 Roehampton · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Kristina Penickova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Carolina Kuhl W100 Templeton |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/09 | Iryna Shymanovich W100 Templeton |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/08 | Harriet Dart US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 25/08 | Elizabeth Mandlik US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 06/08 | Carmen Andreea Herea W35 Southaven |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 04/08 | Antonia Rivera W35 Southaven |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/07 | Jo Yee Chan W35 Florence |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Liv Hovde W35 Florence |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Anastasia Kulikova W35 Santa Fe |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Aliona Falei WTA Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ella Mcdonald vs Kristina Penickova?
Our model gives 61% to Ella Mcdonald, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.