Prediction: Ryuki Matsuda vs Kousuke Ogura
Team pages: Ryuki Matsuda · Kousuke Ogura
Prediction summary
Winner
Ryuki Matsuda
Kousuke Ogura
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Ryuki Matsuda
7-3 (W-L)
Kousuke Ogura
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ryuki Matsuda
1–1
Kousuke Ogura
(2 last)
- 02 Nov2-1 16-14W
- 04 Sept1-2 13-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ryuki Matsuda 1561 · Kousuke Ogura 1505
| Ryuki Matsuda | Kousuke Ogura | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ryuki Matsuda (rating 1561 vs 1505).
Statistics
| Ryuki Matsuda | Kousuke Ogura | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.6 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-7.7 | 10.7-11.2 |
| Aces | 4 | 3 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 64.2% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 50.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
H2H · Ryuki Matsuda 1 – 1 Kousuke Ogura (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ryuki Matsuda 1–1 Kousuke Ogura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/25 Challenger Matsuyama | 2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 04/09/24 M25 Sapporo | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ryuki Matsuda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Reiya Komagata M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Zichen Shao M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/09 | Moise Kouame Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/09 | Taiyo Yamanaka Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/09 | Minh Phat Nguyen Challenger Phan Thiet Qual · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/09 | Yu Tanaka M25 Sapporo |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Naoki Nakagawa M25 Urayasu |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Yanki Erel M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/09 | Shunsuke Mitsui M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Taisei Ichikawa M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Kousuke Ogura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Dong Ju Kim M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 30/09 | Minghui Zhang M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 14/09 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 13/09 | Daisuke Sumizawa Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 10/09 | Seong Chan Hong M25 Sapporo |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Robin Catry M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/09 | Yanki Erel M25 Urayasu |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Omar Jasika M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Tomohiro Masabayashi M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 10-9 | W |
| 20/08 | Hiroki Moriya M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ryuki Matsuda vs Kousuke Ogura?
Our model gives 62% to Ryuki Matsuda, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.