Tennis · Challenger Curitiba · 02/10, 15:00
Prediction: Gustavo Heide vs Lautaro Midon
Team pages: Gustavo Heide · Lautaro Midon
Prediction summary
Winner
Gustavo Heide
Lautaro Midon
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Gustavo Heide
7-3 (W-L)
Lautaro Midon
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gustavo Heide 1582 · Lautaro Midon 1540
| Gustavo Heide | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gustavo Heide (rating 1582 vs 1540).
Statistics
| Gustavo Heide | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-9.1 | 11.8-11.4 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 73.2% |
| Break % | 40.5% | 54.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gustavo Heide
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/09 | Stan Wawrinka Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 11/09 | Mika Brunold Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Sean Cuenin Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/09 | Facundo Mena Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 04/09 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 31/08 | Goncalo Marques Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Lautaro Midon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Matias Soto Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/08 | Kyrian Jacquet US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Dan Martin Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 16/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 14/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 13/07 | Igor Marcondes ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 12/07 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gustavo Heide vs Lautaro Midon?
Our model gives 62% to Gustavo Heide, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.