Tennis · Challenger Curitiba · 01/10, 15:00
Prediction: Mateus Alves vs Gonzalo Villanueva
Team pages: Mateus Alves · Gonzalo Villanueva
Prediction summary
Winner
Mateus Alves
Gonzalo Villanueva
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Mateus Alves
9-1 (W-L)
Gonzalo Villanueva
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mateus Alves
1–2
Gonzalo Villanueva
(3 last)
- 06 May1-2 17-17L
- 30 Sept1-2 14-19L
- 16 Sept2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mateus Alves 1621 · Gonzalo Villanueva 1540
| Mateus Alves | Gonzalo Villanueva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mateus Alves (rating 1621 vs 1540).
- Head-to-head: Mateus Alves 1–2 Gonzalo Villanueva (3).
Statistics
| Mateus Alves | Gonzalo Villanueva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (1) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.3 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-7.1 | 12.5-9.7 |
| Aces | 5.7 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 0.8 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 81.8% | 62.6% |
| Break % | 51% | 50.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
H2H · Mateus Alves 1 – 2 Gonzalo Villanueva (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mateus Alves 1–2 Gonzalo Villanueva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/25 Challenger Santos | 1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 30/09/24 Challenger Buenos Aires | 1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 16/09/24 Challenger Cali | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mateus Alves
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Jose Pereira Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 26/09 | Wilson Leite M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/09 | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/09 | Pedro Henrique Chabalgoity M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/09 | Manuel Mouilleron Salvo M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/09 | Pedro Sakamoto M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/09 | Rafael Tosetto M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/09 | Ryan Augusto Dos Santos M15 Leme |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Victor Braga M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto M15 Porto Velho |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Gonzalo Villanueva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 22/09 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 29/08 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo M15 Mar Del Plata |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 28/08 | Santiago De La Fuente M15 Mar Del Plata |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/08 | Vito Antonio Darderi M15 Mar Del Plata |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 26/08 | Leonel Cesar Castro M15 Mar Del Plata |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Dakotah Bobo M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 20/08 | Bastian Malla M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 19/08 | Felipe De Dios M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mateus Alves vs Gonzalo Villanueva?
Our model gives 64% to Mateus Alves, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.