Tennis · Challenger Curitiba · 30/09, 18:00
Prediction: Gustavo Heide vs Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
Team pages: Gustavo Heide · Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
Prediction summary
Winner
Gustavo Heide
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Gustavo Heide
7-3 (W-L)
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Gustavo Heide
0–1
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
(1 last)
- 19 Jun0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gustavo Heide 1563 · Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 1509
| Gustavo Heide | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gustavo Heide (rating 1563 vs 1509).
- Head-to-head: Gustavo Heide 0–1 Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves (1).
Statistics
| Gustavo Heide | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-9.8 | 11.6-11.6 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 69% |
| Break % | 42.7% | 44% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
H2H · Gustavo Heide 0 – 1 Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gustavo Heide 0–1 Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/19 ITF M15 Sao JDR Preto | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gustavo Heide
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/09 | Stan Wawrinka Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 11/09 | Mika Brunold Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Sean Cuenin Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/09 | Facundo Mena Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 04/09 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 31/08 | Goncalo Marques Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Joel Schwaerzler US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Moise Kouame Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Dali Blanch Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 08/08 | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos M25 Londrina |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/08 | Maximo Zeitune M25 Londrina |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 06/08 | Joao Eduardo Schiessl M25 Londrina |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gustavo Heide vs Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves?
Our model gives 66% to Gustavo Heide, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.