Tennis · Challenger Bari · 01/10, 10:00
Prediction: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Lorenzo Angelini
Team pages: Gianluca Cadenasso · Lorenzo Angelini
Prediction summary
Winner
Gianluca Cadenasso
Lorenzo Angelini
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Gianluca Cadenasso
7-3 (W-L)
Lorenzo Angelini
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Gianluca Cadenasso
2–0
Lorenzo Angelini
(2 last)
- 01 Oct2-0 12-5W
- 31 Jul2-0 13-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gianluca Cadenasso 1494 · Lorenzo Angelini 1455
| Gianluca Cadenasso | Lorenzo Angelini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Gianluca Cadenasso dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 40.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Gianluca Cadenasso 2–0 Lorenzo Angelini (2).
Statistics
| Gianluca Cadenasso | Lorenzo Angelini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 29% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-12.5 | 9.9-12.1 |
| Aces | 7.4 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 62.3% | 58% |
| Break % | 40.2% | 35.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
H2H · Gianluca Cadenasso 2 – 0 Lorenzo Angelini (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gianluca Cadenasso 2–0 Lorenzo Angelini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/25 M25 Santa Margherita | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/07/25 M25 Pitesti | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gianluca Cadenasso
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Benito Sanchez Martinez Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/09 | Matthew William Donald Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 15/09 | Francesco Forti Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Federico Cina Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Leandro Riedi French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 19/05 | Liam Broady French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/05 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 02/05 | Matteo Arnaldi Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
1-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/05 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 30/04 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Lorenzo Angelini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Garrett Johns Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 23/09 | Matteo Sciahbasi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Lorenzo Comino M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Lorenzo Rottoli Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Laurent Lokoli Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Daniel Verbeek M25 Oldenzaal |
1-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Steffan Van Weldam M25 Oldenzaal |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 26/08 | Stan Put M25 Oldenzaal |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Maxime Janvier Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gianluca Cadenasso vs Lorenzo Angelini?
Our model gives 69% to Gianluca Cadenasso, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.