Tennis · Challenger Curitiba · 29/09, 18:00

Prediction: Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto vs Pedro Boscardin Dias

Team pages: Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto · Pedro Boscardin Dias

Prediction summary

Winner

42% 58%

Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto Pedro Boscardin Dias

Estimated games

21.4

Recent form · 10 last

Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto 8-2 (W-L)

WWWWWLWLWW

Pedro Boscardin Dias 3-7 (W-L)

LLLWLLWLWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto 1592 · Pedro Boscardin Dias 1471

	Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto	Pedro Boscardin Dias
Our model	67%	33%
Market	22%	78%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto (rating 1592 vs 1471).
Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto is in better form: 80% recent wins.

Statistics

	Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto	Pedro Boscardin Dias
Win %	80%	30%
Win % · Clay	100% (2)	33% (9)
Sets (G-P)	1.7-0.5	0.8-1.5
Games (G-P)	12.3-8.4	9.4-11.9
Aces	2.1	1.9
Double faults	1.9	2.1
1st serve %	70.4%	62.8%
Break %	59.9%	53.4%

Estimated total games (ours) 21.4

Odds Bet365

14.33

21.20

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4%

Time*	1	2
08:29 +6’	4.33	1.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto

LWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
28/09	Bruno Fernandez Challenger Curitiba · Clay	2-1	17-15	W
27/09	Joao Victor Couto Loureiro Challenger Curitiba · Clay	2-0	13-8	W
24/09	Wilson Leite M15 Curitiba	0-2	7-13	L
23/09	Victor Bini M15 Curitiba	2-0	12-4	W
12/09	Pedro Sakamoto M15 Leme	1-2	15-18	L
12/09	Gabriel Schenekenberg M15 Leme	2-0	12-2	W
11/09	Nicolas Garcia Longo M15 Leme	2-0	12-3	W
06/09	Mateus Alves M15 Porto Velho	2-0	14-11	W
05/09	Joao Eduardo Schiessl M15 Porto Velho	2-0	12-4	W
03/09	Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava M15 Porto Velho	2-0	9-6	W

Pedro Boscardin Dias

LWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
26/09	Facundo Mena Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay	0-2	5-13	L
25/09	Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay	2-0	12-8	W
24/09	Franco Roncadelli Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay	2-1	13-15	W
22/09	Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay	2-0	12-4	W
04/08	Samuele Pieri Challenger Plovdiv · Clay	1-2	13-12	L
27/07	Jurij Rodionov Challenger Bonn · Clay	0-2	7-12	L
21/07	Otto Virtanen Challenger Tampere · Clay	1-2	15-17	L
14/07	Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Bunschoten · Clay	0-2	7-13	L
07/07	Daniel Michalski Challenger Liege · Clay	0-2	3-12	L
22/06	Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass	0-2	7-13	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto vs Pedro Boscardin Dias?

Our model gives 58% to Pedro Boscardin Dias, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.