Tennis · Challenger Curitiba · 29/09, 16:10
Prediction: Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos
Team pages: Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida · Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos
Prediction summary
Winner
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
5-5 (W-L)
Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos
10-0 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
1–0
Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos
(1 last)
- 26 Jun2-1 16-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 1523 · Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos 1583
| Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos (rating 1523 vs 1583).
- Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 45.3% break avg.
- Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 1–0 Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos (1).
Statistics
| Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-12.4 | 13.2-8.9 |
| Aces | 2 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.3% | 76% |
| Break % | 42.4% | 45.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
H2H · Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 1 – 0 Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 1–0 Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/26 Challenger Piracicaba | 2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/09 | Remy Bertola Davis Cup |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Jay Friend Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Marek Gengel Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/08 | Christian Langmo Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Peter Makk Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 14/08 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Gabriel Schenekenberg Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/09 | Augusto Scheidt Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Nicolas Zanellato M15 Belem |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/09 | Livas Eduardo De Carvalho Damazio M15 Belem |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 18/09 | Gabriel Schenekenberg M15 Belem |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/09 | Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira M15 Belem |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/09 | Luka Bojicic Ono M15 Belem |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Kingston · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 25/08 | Alex Hernandez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/08 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos?
Our model gives 62% to Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.