Tennis · Challenger Curitiba · 29/09, 16:30
Prediction: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Tomas Barrios Vera
Team pages: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez · Tomas Barrios Vera
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez
Tomas Barrios Vera
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez
6-4 (W-L)
Tomas Barrios Vera
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 1522 · Tomas Barrios Vera 1456
| Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | Tomas Barrios Vera | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez (rating 1522 vs 1456).
- Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | Tomas Barrios Vera | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (4) | 0% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 1-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-9.2 | 12.6-13.3 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 66.1% | 66.3% |
| Break % | 55.6% | 30.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Wilson Leite Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/09 | Bruno Milani Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 22/09 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 21/09 | Tadeo Meneo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves M25 Londrina |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos M25 Sao Paulo |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Jose Pereira M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/07 | Nicolas Zanellato M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/07 | Maximo Zeitune M25 Sao Paulo |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 19/07 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo M15 Villa Constitucion |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Tomas Barrios Vera
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Alexander Blockx US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 27/08 | Daniel Rincon US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 17-9 | W |
| 20/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger Zug · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 14/07 | Niels Visker Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Dane Sweeny Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 24-23 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Tomas Barrios Vera?
Our model gives 58% to Tomas Barrios Vera, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.