Tennis · M15 Sibenik · 29/09, 11:30
Prediction: Gabriele Pennaforti vs Martin Van Der Meerschen
Team pages: Gabriele Pennaforti · Martin Van Der Meerschen
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabriele Pennaforti
Martin Van Der Meerschen
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Gabriele Pennaforti
5-5 (W-L)
Martin Van Der Meerschen
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriele Pennaforti 1454 · Martin Van Der Meerschen 1532
| Gabriele Pennaforti | Martin Van Der Meerschen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Martin Van Der Meerschen (rating 1454 vs 1532).
- Martin Van Der Meerschen is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Gabriele Pennaforti makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Gabriele Pennaforti | Martin Van Der Meerschen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (6) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.2-10 | 12.1-9.5 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 63.4% | 73.9% |
| Break % | 43.1% | 51.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriele Pennaforti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Lorenzo Carboni M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Nicholas David Ionel M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/09 | Nicolas Parizzia M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 19/08 | Thilo Behrmann M15 Mistelbach |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 12/08 | George Lazarov M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Peter Buldorini M25 Fano |
1-2 | 12-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Gabriele Crivellaro M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Giacomo Crisostomo M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/07 | Pietro Marino M15 Gubbio |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/07 | David Eichenseher M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Martin Van Der Meerschen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Florent Lagarrigue M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/09 | Matteo Vavassori M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 16/09 | Radimir Lutkovskii M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/09 | Roman Kharlamov M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Marat Salbiev M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/09 | Ryan Nijboer M15 Madrid |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Pedro Rodenas M15 Madrid |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Michiel de Krom M15 Madrid |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 03/09 | Rafael De Alba M15 Madrid |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/09 | Theodore Dean M15 Madrid |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriele Pennaforti vs Martin Van Der Meerschen?
Our model gives 62% to Martin Van Der Meerschen, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.