Tennis · Challenger Curitiba · 28/09, 15:00
Prediction: Samuel Heredia vs Juan Sebastian Osorio
Team pages: Samuel Heredia · Juan Sebastian Osorio
Prediction summary
Winner
Samuel Heredia
Juan Sebastian Osorio
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Samuel Heredia
3-7 (W-L)
Juan Sebastian Osorio
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Samuel Heredia
0–1
Juan Sebastian Osorio
(1 last)
- 29 Oct1-2 12-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Samuel Heredia 1455 · Juan Sebastian Osorio 1554
| Samuel Heredia | Juan Sebastian Osorio | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Sebastian Osorio (rating 1455 vs 1554).
- Juan Sebastian Osorio is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Samuel Heredia 0–1 Juan Sebastian Osorio (1).
- Note: Samuel Heredia makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Samuel Heredia | Juan Sebastian Osorio | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-12.3 | 11.1-9.1 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 5 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 70.8% |
| Break % | 38.7% | 41% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Samuel Heredia 0 – 1 Juan Sebastian Osorio (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Samuel Heredia 0–1 Juan Sebastian Osorio
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/25 ITF M15 Ibague | 1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Samuel Heredia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Leonardo Storck Franca Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 19/09 | Jesper De Jong Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Laslo Djere Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Luca Potenza M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Massimo Giunta Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/07 | John Echeverria Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/07 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Lorenzo Claverie Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 04/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 03/07 | Ignacio Monzon Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Juan Sebastian Osorio
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Jefferson Wendler Filho Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/09 | Pedro Sakamoto M15 Curitiba |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Mauricio Echazu M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/09 | Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/09 | Nicolas Zanellato M15 Belem |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 18/09 | Pedro Sakamoto M15 Belem |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 17/09 | Valentin Garay M15 Belem |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/09 | Rafael Augusto Garcia Finetto M15 Belem |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/08 | Maximo Zeitune M25 Londrina |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Juan Estevez M25 Londrina |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Samuel Heredia vs Juan Sebastian Osorio?
Our model gives 53% to Juan Sebastian Osorio, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.