Tennis · WTA Jingshan · 30/09, 04:00
Prediction: Jia-Jing Lu vs Hayu Kinoshita
Team pages: Jia-Jing Lu · Hayu Kinoshita
Prediction summary
Winner
Jia-Jing Lu
Hayu Kinoshita
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Jia-Jing Lu
7-3 (W-L)
Hayu Kinoshita
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jia-Jing Lu 1527 · Hayu Kinoshita 1454
| Jia-Jing Lu | Hayu Kinoshita | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jia-Jing Lu (rating 1527 vs 1454).
- Jia-Jing Lu is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Hayu Kinoshita makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Jia-Jing Lu | Hayu Kinoshita | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 0.7-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-8.4 | 10.4-11.7 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 57.9% |
| Break % | 47% | 48.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jia-Jing Lu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Tiana Tian Deng W50 Nanao |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Cheuk Ying Shek W50 Nanao |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 20/09 | Hiromi Abe W35 Kyoto |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 19/09 | Ena Shibahara W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/09 | Eri Shimizu W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/09 | Kamonwan Yodpetch W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/09 | Kanon Sawashiro W35 Kyoto |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/09 | Wushuang Zheng W50 Guiyang |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Patcharin Cheapchandej W75 Tianjin |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Chengyiyi Yuan W75 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Hayu Kinoshita
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Darja Semenistaja WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/09 | Cadence Brace WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/09 | Victoria Rodriguez WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 03/09 | Oceane Dodin W50 Leiria |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 01/09 | Rebecca Munk Mortensen W50 Leiria |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Darja Semenistaja US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Kyoka Okamura WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Elvina Kalieva W100 Evansville |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Sakura Hosogi W75 Granby |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jia-Jing Lu vs Hayu Kinoshita?
Our model gives 50% to Jia-Jing Lu, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.