Tennis · Challenger Curitiba · 29/09, 15:00
Prediction: Gustavo Heide vs Hernan Casanova
Team pages: Gustavo Heide · Hernan Casanova
Prediction summary
Winner
Gustavo Heide
Hernan Casanova
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Gustavo Heide
6-4 (W-L)
Hernan Casanova
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Gustavo Heide
1–1
Hernan Casanova
(2 last)
- 31 Oct2-0 12-4W
- 23 Nov1-2 13-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gustavo Heide 1570 · Hernan Casanova 1473
| Gustavo Heide | Hernan Casanova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gustavo Heide (rating 1570 vs 1473).
Statistics
| Gustavo Heide | Hernan Casanova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 0.9-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-10.7 | 9.5-9.9 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 0.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 57.9% |
| Break % | 42.7% | 53.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
H2H · Gustavo Heide 1 – 1 Hernan Casanova (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gustavo Heide 1–1 Hernan Casanova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/25 ITF M25 Lajeado | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/11/21 Challenger Brasilia | 1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gustavo Heide
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Stan Wawrinka Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 11/09 | Mika Brunold Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Sean Cuenin Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/09 | Facundo Mena Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 04/09 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 31/08 | Goncalo Marques Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Joel Schwaerzler US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 17/08 | Harold Mayot Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Hernan Casanova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Murkel Dellien Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Flynn Thomas M25 Muttenz |
0-2 | 4-8 | L |
| 04/08 | Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Carlos Lopez Montagud M25 Denia |
0-1 | 6-7 | L |
| 23/07 | Ludvig Fredrik Hede M25 Denia |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Jordi Garcia Mestre M25 Denia |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/07 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Ignacio Monzon Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gustavo Heide vs Hernan Casanova?
Our model gives 65% to Gustavo Heide, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.