Tennis · Challenger Curitiba · 29/09, 15:00
Prediction: Joao Lucas Reis da Silva vs Murkel Dellien
Team pages: Joao Lucas Reis da Silva · Murkel Dellien
Prediction summary
Winner
Joao Lucas Reis da Silva
Murkel Dellien
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Joao Lucas Reis da Silva
5-5 (W-L)
Murkel Dellien
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Joao Lucas Reis da Silva
1–2
Murkel Dellien
(3 last)
- 30 Apr2-0 12-3W
- 15 Jan1-2 14-18L
- 12 Oct0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joao Lucas Reis da Silva 1501 · Murkel Dellien 1443
| Joao Lucas Reis da Silva | Murkel Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Joao Lucas Reis da Silva (rating 1501 vs 1443).
- Head-to-head: Joao Lucas Reis da Silva 1–2 Murkel Dellien (3).
Statistics
| Joao Lucas Reis da Silva | Murkel Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 17% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-11.2 | 9.7-12.5 |
| Aces | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 1 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 66.7% | 62.5% |
| Break % | 46.7% | 28.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Joao Lucas Reis da Silva 1 – 2 Murkel Dellien (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Joao Lucas Reis da Silva 1–2 Murkel Dellien
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/25 Challenger Porto Alegre | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/01/25 Challenger Buenos Aires | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 12/10/21 ITF M25 Lima | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joao Lucas Reis da Silva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Mika Brunold Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/09 | Alex Barrena Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/09 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/09 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Alex Molcan Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/08 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Hynek Barton Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
Murkel Dellien
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 22/09 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Benito Sanchez Martinez Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Ryan Nijboer Challenger Sion · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/08 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Adrian Andreev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Jack Loge M25 Wetzlar |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Lars Goran Verwerft M25 Wetzlar |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 29/07 | Jip Van Assendelft M25 Wetzlar |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 23/07 | Jose Pereira M25 Sao Paulo |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joao Lucas Reis da Silva vs Murkel Dellien?
Our model gives 67% to Joao Lucas Reis da Silva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.