Tennis · Challenger Curitiba · 27/09, 19:30
Prediction: Boris Arias vs Santiago De La Fuente
Team pages: Boris Arias · Santiago De La Fuente
Prediction summary
Winner
Boris Arias
Santiago De La Fuente
Estimated games
20
Recent form · 10 last
Boris Arias
3-7 (W-L)
Santiago De La Fuente
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Boris Arias 1430 · Santiago De La Fuente 1510
| Boris Arias | Santiago De La Fuente | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santiago De La Fuente (rating 1430 vs 1510).
- Santiago De La Fuente is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Boris Arias makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Boris Arias | Santiago De La Fuente | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 30% (10) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.5 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 8-10.8 | 10.1-8.7 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 60.4% | 61.3% |
| Break % | 43.4% | 50.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Boris Arias
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Patrick Schoen Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Andrej Martin Challenger Prague · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Ergi Kirkin Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 12/04 | Dan Martin Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/03 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/03 | Conner Huertas Del Pino Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 22/03 | Enzo Lima Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/03 | Federico Gaston Gonzalez Benitez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/01 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Itajai · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Santiago De La Fuente
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Matias Franco Descotte Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 28/08 | Gonzalo Villanueva M15 Mar Del Plata |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 27/08 | Tomas Jordi Leston M15 Mar Del Plata |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Tobia Grandinetti M15 Mar Del Plata |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/08 | Maxwell Exsted M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Mateo Del Pino M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/08 | Corey Craig M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/08 | Gonzalo Villanueva M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Dakotah Bobo M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Lorenzo Gagliardo M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Boris Arias vs Santiago De La Fuente?
Our model gives 71% to Santiago De La Fuente, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.