Tennis · Challenger Curitiba · 27/09, 21:00
Prediction: Pedro Sakamoto vs Joao Goncalves
Team pages: Pedro Sakamoto · Joao Goncalves
Prediction summary
Winner
Pedro Sakamoto
Joao Goncalves
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Pedro Sakamoto
8-2 (W-L)
Joao Goncalves
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Pedro Sakamoto
1–0
Joao Goncalves
(1 last)
- 24 Sept2-0 12-2W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pedro Sakamoto 1606 · Joao Goncalves 1482
| Pedro Sakamoto | Joao Goncalves | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 33% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pedro Sakamoto (rating 1606 vs 1482).
- Pedro Sakamoto is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Pedro Sakamoto 1–0 Joao Goncalves (1).
Statistics
| Pedro Sakamoto | Joao Goncalves | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-8.3 | 9.7-10.2 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 75.3% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 61.5% | 46.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
H2H · Pedro Sakamoto 1 – 0 Joao Goncalves (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pedro Sakamoto 1–0 Joao Goncalves
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/26 M15 Curitiba | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pedro Sakamoto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Nicolas Zanellato M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/09 | Juan Sebastian Osorio M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/09 | Joao Goncalves M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 22/09 | Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/09 | Juan Sebastian Osorio M15 Belem |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 17/09 | Vitor Machado De Melo Cunha M15 Belem |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 16/09 | Thomas Enrique Menzel Piccioli M15 Belem |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/09 | Mateus Alves M15 Leme |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/09 | Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto M15 Leme |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 11/09 | Nicolas Zanellato M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Joao Goncalves
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Pedro Sakamoto M15 Curitiba |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Eric Von Marton Martins M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/09 | Nicolas Zanellato M15 Belem |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 16/09 | Ignacio Antonio Becerra Otarola M15 Belem |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/09 | Rafael Tosetto M15 Leme |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/09 | Ryan Dickerson M15 Leme |
2-1 | 9-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Joao Cunha Cunha M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/08 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Adhithya Ganesan M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Ryan Colby M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pedro Sakamoto vs Joao Goncalves?
Our model gives 72% to Pedro Sakamoto, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.