Tennis · Challenger Bari · 29/09, 10:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Angelini vs Garrett Johns
Team pages: Lorenzo Angelini · Garrett Johns
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Angelini
Garrett Johns
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Angelini
5-5 (W-L)
Garrett Johns
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Angelini 1450 · Garrett Johns 1517
| Lorenzo Angelini | Garrett Johns | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Garrett Johns (rating 1450 vs 1517).
- Garrett Johns is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Lorenzo Angelini | Garrett Johns | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 17% (6) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.3-11 | 10.8-9.5 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 56.3% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 30% | 40.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Angelini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Matteo Sciahbasi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Lorenzo Comino M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Lorenzo Rottoli Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Laurent Lokoli Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Daniel Verbeek M25 Oldenzaal |
1-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Steffan Van Weldam M25 Oldenzaal |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 26/08 | Stan Put M25 Oldenzaal |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Maxime Janvier Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 24/07 | Pavel Lagutin M25 Denia |
0-1 | 2-6 | L |
Garrett Johns
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Daniele Rapagnetta M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/09 | Tristan McCormick M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/09 | Andrea De Marchi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Gabriele Maria Noce M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 14/09 | Lorenzo Rottoli M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Max Purcell Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Aidan Kim Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 19/08 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Timo Legout Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 16/08 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Angelini vs Garrett Johns?
Our model gives 59% to Garrett Johns, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.