Tennis · Challenger Bari · 27/09, 13:00
Prediction: Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Svyatoslav Gulin
Team pages: Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes · Svyatoslav Gulin
Prediction summary
Winner
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Svyatoslav Gulin
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
7-3 (W-L)
Svyatoslav Gulin
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes 1507 · Svyatoslav Gulin 1556
| Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | Svyatoslav Gulin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Svyatoslav Gulin (rating 1507 vs 1556).
Statistics
| Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | Svyatoslav Gulin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (3) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-12 | 11.7-10.4 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 63.9% | 73.7% |
| Break % | 46% | 29.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 16/08 | Karl Poling M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/08 | Max Sheldon M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Tyler Bowers M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/08 | Noah Zamora M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Simon Caldwell M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Edward Winter ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 08/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 06/07 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 01/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Svyatoslav Gulin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Ryo Tabata Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Andrej Martin Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/09 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Como · Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Martin Krumich Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 25/08 | Henri Haupt Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/08 | Peter Fajta Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Svyatoslav Gulin?
Our model gives 66% to Svyatoslav Gulin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.