Tennis · Billie Jean King Cup · 26/09, 12:30
Prediction: Jasmine Paolini vs Elina Svitolina
Team pages: Jasmine Paolini · Elina Svitolina
Prediction summary
Winner
Jasmine Paolini
Elina Svitolina
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jasmine Paolini
6-4 (W-L)
Elina Svitolina
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jasmine Paolini
1–2
Elina Svitolina
(3 last)
- 19 Sept2-1 15-14W
- 01 Jun1-2 13-17L
- 18 Jan1-2 10-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jasmine Paolini 1545 · Elina Svitolina 1545
| Jasmine Paolini | Elina Svitolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Jasmine Paolini 1–2 Elina Svitolina (3).
- Note: Elina Svitolina makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Jasmine Paolini | Elina Svitolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (4) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.7-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-10.4 | 14.3-10.7 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 63.4% | 69% |
| Break % | 45.6% | 54.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
H2H · Jasmine Paolini 1 – 2 Elina Svitolina (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jasmine Paolini 1–2 Elina Svitolina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/25 Billie Jean King Cup | 2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 01/06/25 French Open Women | 1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 18/01/25 Australian Open Women | 1-2 | 10-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jasmine Paolini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Qinwen Zheng Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Sorana Cirstea US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Lucrezia Stefanini US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/08 | Veronika Erjavec US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Marta Kostyuk Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Alexandra Eala Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 04/07 | Maria Sakkari Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/07 | Viktorija Golubic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Robin Montgomery Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 23/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Elina Svitolina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Greet Minnen Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 05/09 | Anna Kalinskaya US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 03/09 | Maya Joint US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 31/08 | Solana Sierra US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 13/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jasmine Paolini vs Elina Svitolina?
Our model gives 58% to Elina Svitolina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.