Tennis · Challenger San Diego · 24/09, 20:00
Prediction: Tristan Boyer vs Sebastian Gorzny
Team pages: Tristan Boyer · Sebastian Gorzny
Prediction summary
Winner
Tristan Boyer
Sebastian Gorzny
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tristan Boyer
5-5 (W-L)
Sebastian Gorzny
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tristan Boyer 1499 · Sebastian Gorzny 1559
| Tristan Boyer | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Gorzny (rating 1499 vs 1559).
- Sebastian Gorzny dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 48.2% break avg.
- Note: Sebastian Gorzny makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Tristan Boyer | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.6-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-10.7 | 14.8-12.9 |
| Aces | 4 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71.3% | 70.5% |
| Break % | 37.8% | 48.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tristan Boyer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Spencer Johnson Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/09 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Edward Winter Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Andre Ilagan US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 17/08 | James Watt Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/08 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 26/07 | Lorenzo Claverie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 21/09 | Aidan Mayo Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/09 | Andrew Johnson Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 17/09 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 31/08 | Raphael Collignon US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-24 | W |
| 24/08 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 23/08 | Felix Balshaw ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tristan Boyer vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Our model gives 51% to Sebastian Gorzny, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.