Tennis · Challenger San Diego · 24/09, 20:00
Prediction: Timo Legout vs Colton Smith
Team pages: Timo Legout · Colton Smith
Prediction summary
Winner
Timo Legout
Colton Smith
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Timo Legout
9-1 (W-L)
Colton Smith
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Timo Legout 1594 · Colton Smith 1483
| Timo Legout | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Timo Legout (rating 1594 vs 1483).
- Timo Legout is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Colton Smith makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Timo Legout | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-7.6 | 13.3-13.9 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 66.3% | 68.1% |
| Break % | 58.8% | 46.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Timo Legout
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 21/09 | Daniil Ostapenkov Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/09 | Darian King Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/09 | Bryce Nakashima Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Henry Searle Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/09 | Daniil Ostapenkov Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/09 | Evan Bynoe Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/08 | Garrett Johns Challenger Kingston · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 16/08 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/08 | Evan Zhu M25 Southaven |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Colton Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/08 | Hugo Gaston US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 27/08 | Jerome Kym US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 25/08 | Andrea Pellegrino US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Felix Gill Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 26/07 | Roger Pascual Ferra ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 16/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Timo Legout vs Colton Smith?
Our model gives 53% to Timo Legout, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.