Tennis · Challenger San Diego · 23/09, 19:00
Prediction: Keegan Smith vs Dylan Dietrich
Team pages: Keegan Smith · Dylan Dietrich
Prediction summary
Winner
Keegan Smith
Dylan Dietrich
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Keegan Smith
4-6 (W-L)
Dylan Dietrich
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keegan Smith 1499 · Dylan Dietrich 1562
| Keegan Smith | Dylan Dietrich | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dylan Dietrich (rating 1499 vs 1562).
- Dylan Dietrich is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Keegan Smith | Dylan Dietrich | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-13.1 | 13.2-10.5 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 9.3 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71.5% | 82% |
| Break % | 38% | 36.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keegan Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Edward Winter Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 15/09 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 24/08 | Alexis Galarneau US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Paul Inchauspe Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 22/07 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Digvijay Pratap Singh Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Niels McDonald Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Dylan Dietrich
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Dinko Dinev Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/08 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 12/08 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 11/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/07 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Harold Mayot Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/07 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 14/07 | Jerome Kym ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 12/07 | Thiago Monteiro ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keegan Smith vs Dylan Dietrich?
Our model gives 56% to Dylan Dietrich, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.