Tennis · Challenger San Diego · 22/09, 23:00
Prediction: Mitchell Krueger vs Sebastian Gorzny
Team pages: Mitchell Krueger · Sebastian Gorzny
Prediction summary
Winner
Mitchell Krueger
Sebastian Gorzny
Estimated games
23.6
Recent form · 10 last
Mitchell Krueger
5-5 (W-L)
Sebastian Gorzny
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mitchell Krueger 1496 · Sebastian Gorzny 1548
| Mitchell Krueger | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sebastian Gorzny (rating 1496 vs 1548).
- Sebastian Gorzny dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 49% break avg.
- Note: Sebastian Gorzny makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Mitchell Krueger | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.6-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-11.3 | 14.3-12.3 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 68.5% | 69.7% |
| Break % | 42.1% | 49% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mitchell Krueger
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Michael Zheng Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/09 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 15/09 | Keegan Smith Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 25/08 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Alex Martinez Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Gavin Young M25 Dallas |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 09/07 | Oliver Okonkwo M25 Dallas |
1-1 | 7-4 | W |
| 08/07 | Aleksandar Mitric M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/06 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Aidan Mayo Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/09 | Andrew Johnson Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 17/09 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 31/08 | Raphael Collignon US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-24 | W |
| 24/08 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 23/08 | Felix Balshaw ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 22/08 | Marc Polmans ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mitchell Krueger vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Our model gives 61% to Sebastian Gorzny, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.