Tennis · Challenger San Diego · 22/09, 23:00
Prediction: Tristan Boyer vs Spencer Johnson
Team pages: Tristan Boyer · Spencer Johnson
Prediction summary
Winner
Tristan Boyer
Spencer Johnson
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Tristan Boyer
4-6 (W-L)
Spencer Johnson
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tristan Boyer 1471 · Spencer Johnson 1567
| Tristan Boyer | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spencer Johnson (rating 1471 vs 1567).
- Spencer Johnson dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 41.6% break avg.
- Spencer Johnson is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Tristan Boyer | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-11.2 | 14.1-10.7 |
| Aces | 3.5 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 41.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tristan Boyer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Edward Winter Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Andre Ilagan US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 17/08 | James Watt Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/08 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Gabriel Diallo ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 26/07 | Lorenzo Claverie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Spencer Johnson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Jakub Vrba Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Jan Kobierski Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/09 | Erik Arutiunian Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/09 | Vignesh Gogineni Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Cristian Garin US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 08/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 07/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Moez Echargui Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/08 | Ryan Colby Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tristan Boyer vs Spencer Johnson?
Our model gives 54% to Spencer Johnson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.