Tennis · Challenger San Diego · 21/09, 21:30
Prediction: Aidan Mayo vs Sebastian Gorzny
Team pages: Aidan Mayo · Sebastian Gorzny
Prediction summary
Winner
Aidan Mayo
Sebastian Gorzny
Estimated games
23.7
Recent form · 10 last
Aidan Mayo
9-1 (W-L)
Sebastian Gorzny
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aidan Mayo 1562 · Sebastian Gorzny 1521
| Aidan Mayo | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aidan Mayo (rating 1562 vs 1521).
- Sebastian Gorzny dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 46.5% break avg.
- Note: Aidan Mayo makes many double faults (4.2/match).
- Note: Sebastian Gorzny makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Aidan Mayo | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.5-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-9.9 | 14.6-13 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 75.2% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 46.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aidan Mayo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Jordan Lee Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/09 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/08 | Luis Guto Miguel Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 26/08 | Benjamin Willwerth Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 24/08 | Keshav Chopra Challenger Kingston · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 23/08 | Joao Goncalves Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Timo Legout Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Andrew Johnson Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 17/09 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 31/08 | Raphael Collignon US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-24 | W |
| 24/08 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 23/08 | Felix Balshaw ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 22/08 | Marc Polmans ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Axel Nefve M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aidan Mayo vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Our model gives 53% to Aidan Mayo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.