Tennis · Challenger San Diego · 21/09, 20:00
Prediction: Jakub Vrba vs Spencer Johnson
Team pages: Jakub Vrba · Spencer Johnson
Prediction summary
Winner
Jakub Vrba
Spencer Johnson
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Jakub Vrba
2-8 (W-L)
Spencer Johnson
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jakub Vrba 1530 · Spencer Johnson 1559
| Jakub Vrba | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 14% | 86% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jakub Vrba dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 45.5% break avg.
- Spencer Johnson dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 42.3% break avg.
- Note: Jakub Vrba makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Jakub Vrba | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-12.2 | 14.2-10.7 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 4.9 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 45.5% | 42.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jakub Vrba
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Bryce Nakashima M15 Champaign |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/08 | Oliver Okonkwo M15 Champaign |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 28/08 | Ofek Shimanov M15 Champaign |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 27/08 | Ryan Colby M15 Champaign |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 26/08 | Alexander Frusina M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Nicholas Mekhael M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 27/07 | Pablo Martinez Gomez Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 23/06 | Javier Barranco Cosano M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 18/06 | Andrej Nedic M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Spencer Johnson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Jan Kobierski Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/09 | Erik Arutiunian Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/09 | Vignesh Gogineni Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Cristian Garin US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 08/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 07/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Moez Echargui Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/08 | Ryan Colby Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 02/08 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jakub Vrba vs Spencer Johnson?
Our model gives 71% to Spencer Johnson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.