Tennis · Challenger San Diego · 21/09, 20:00
Prediction: Alafia Ayeni vs Evan Zhu
Team pages: Alafia Ayeni · Evan Zhu
Prediction summary
Winner
Alafia Ayeni
Evan Zhu
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Alafia Ayeni
6-4 (W-L)
Evan Zhu
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alafia Ayeni
1–1
Evan Zhu
(2 last)
- 13 Dec2-0 12-3W
- 30 Jul1-2 13-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alafia Ayeni 1494 · Evan Zhu 1569
| Alafia Ayeni | Evan Zhu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Evan Zhu (rating 1494 vs 1569).
- Evan Zhu is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Alafia Ayeni makes many double faults (6.3/match).
- Note: Evan Zhu makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Alafia Ayeni | Evan Zhu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-11 | 12.6-9.5 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 6.3 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.3% | 67.5% |
| Break % | 49.9% | 43.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
H2H · Alafia Ayeni 1 – 1 Evan Zhu (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alafia Ayeni 1–1 Evan Zhu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/24 M15 Huamantla | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/07/22 Challenger Winnipeg | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alafia Ayeni
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Li Tu Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/09 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 07/09 | Carl Emil Overbeck Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/09 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Tiago Cacao Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Adrien Burdet Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/08 | Patrick Brady Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 17/08 | Patrick Brady Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Zach Stephens Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
Evan Zhu
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Aleksi Lofman Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Michael Zheng Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 14/09 | Ozan Baris Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 13/09 | Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Kingston · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 24/08 | Joshua Sheehy Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 23/08 | Arjun Kadhe Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/08 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/08 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Tauheed Browning Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alafia Ayeni vs Evan Zhu?
Our model gives 58% to Evan Zhu, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.