Tennis · Challenger San Diego · 21/09, 20:00
Prediction: Stefan Kozlov vs Colton Smith
Team pages: Stefan Kozlov · Colton Smith
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefan Kozlov
Colton Smith
Estimated games
25.1
Recent form · 10 last
Stefan Kozlov
5-5 (W-L)
Colton Smith
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefan Kozlov 1436 · Colton Smith 1477
| Stefan Kozlov | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Colton Smith (rating 1436 vs 1477).
- Note: Colton Smith makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Stefan Kozlov | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (8) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.7 | 1.3-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-13.5 | 13.8-14.8 |
| Aces | 2 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 61.2% | 66.6% |
| Break % | 40.5% | 41.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefan Kozlov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 14/08 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 12/08 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 25/07 | Zachary Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/07 | Roger Pascual Ferra Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Leo Vithoontien Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 10/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 09/07 | Yibing Wu Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
Colton Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Hugo Gaston US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 27/08 | Jerome Kym US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 25/08 | Andrea Pellegrino US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Felix Gill Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 26/07 | Roger Pascual Ferra ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 16/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefan Kozlov vs Colton Smith?
Our model gives 65% to Colton Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.