Tennis · Challenger San Diego · 21/09, 20:00
Prediction: Keegan Smith vs Edward Winter
Team pages: Keegan Smith · Edward Winter
Prediction summary
Winner
Keegan Smith
Edward Winter
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Keegan Smith
4-6 (W-L)
Edward Winter
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Keegan Smith
1–0
Edward Winter
(1 last)
- 09 Oct2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keegan Smith 1469 · Edward Winter 1497
| Keegan Smith | Edward Winter | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Keegan Smith dominates on serve: 7.6 aces and 40.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Keegan Smith 1–0 Edward Winter (1).
Statistics
| Keegan Smith | Edward Winter | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-12.8 | 10.4-8.9 |
| Aces | 7.6 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 63.8% |
| Break % | 40.2% | 36.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Keegan Smith 1 – 0 Edward Winter (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Keegan Smith 1–0 Edward Winter
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/23 Challenger Fairfield | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keegan Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 24/08 | Alexis Galarneau US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Paul Inchauspe Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 22/07 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Digvijay Pratap Singh Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Niels McDonald Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Edward Winter
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/08 | John Chin Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/08 | Aidan Kim Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Steven Christie Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/08 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 10/08 | Gavin Young Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/08 | Dominick Mosejczuk Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/07 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keegan Smith vs Edward Winter?
Our model gives 54% to Keegan Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.