Tennis · Challenger San Diego · 20/09, 23:00
Prediction: Alafia Ayeni vs Li Tu
Team pages: Alafia Ayeni · Li Tu
Prediction summary
Winner
Alafia Ayeni
Li Tu
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Alafia Ayeni
6-4 (W-L)
Li Tu
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alafia Ayeni
0–1
Li Tu
(1 last)
- 05 Nov1-2 11-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alafia Ayeni 1478 · Li Tu 1499
| Alafia Ayeni | Li Tu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alafia Ayeni dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 51.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alafia Ayeni 0–1 Li Tu (1).
- Note: Alafia Ayeni makes many double faults (6.2/match).
Statistics
| Alafia Ayeni | Li Tu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-11.3 | 11.1-12.7 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 6.2 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 66% |
| Break % | 51.9% | 24.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
H2H · Alafia Ayeni 0 – 1 Li Tu (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alafia Ayeni 0–1 Li Tu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/24 Challenger Matsuyama | 1-2 | 11-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alafia Ayeni
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 07/09 | Carl Emil Overbeck Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/09 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Tiago Cacao Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Adrien Burdet Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/08 | Patrick Brady Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 17/08 | Patrick Brady Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Zach Stephens Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Mikel Martinez M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Li Tu
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Roger Pascual Ferra Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Quinn Vandecasteele ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Lorenzo Carboni Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/04 | Fajing Sun Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 18/04 | Charles Broom Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 17/04 | Blake Ellis Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/04 | Keegan Smith Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 15/04 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alafia Ayeni vs Li Tu?
Our model gives 59% to Li Tu, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.