Tennis · Challenger San Diego · 20/09, 23:00
Prediction: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Quinn Vandecasteele
Team pages: Daniil Ostapenkov · Quinn Vandecasteele
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Ostapenkov
Quinn Vandecasteele
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Ostapenkov
5-5 (W-L)
Quinn Vandecasteele
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Ostapenkov 1507 · Quinn Vandecasteele 1547
| Daniil Ostapenkov | Quinn Vandecasteele | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Quinn Vandecasteele (rating 1507 vs 1547).
- Note: Quinn Vandecasteele makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Daniil Ostapenkov | Quinn Vandecasteele | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-11.2 | 11.3-9.6 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 74.3% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 43.7% | 49.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Ostapenkov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Timo Legout Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/09 | Gus Grumet Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/08 | Florent Bax Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 04/08 | Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 03/08 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Yurii Dzhavakian Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/07 | Tiago Torres M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Lui Maxted M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Rohan Mehra M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/06 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Porto |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Quinn Vandecasteele
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Bryce Nakashima Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Noah Zamora Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 24/08 | James Duckworth ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 23/08 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 22/08 | Li Tu ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/08 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Ajeet Rai Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/08 | Patricio Alvarado Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Maxwell Exsted M25 Southaven |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Ostapenkov vs Quinn Vandecasteele?
Our model gives 56% to Quinn Vandecasteele, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.