Tennis · Challenger San Diego · 20/09, 21:30
Prediction: Jan Kobierski vs Spencer Johnson
Team pages: Jan Kobierski · Spencer Johnson
Prediction summary
Winner
Jan Kobierski
Spencer Johnson
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Jan Kobierski
2-8 (W-L)
Spencer Johnson
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jan Kobierski 1449 · Spencer Johnson 1526
| Jan Kobierski | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 9% | 91% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spencer Johnson (rating 1449 vs 1526).
- Spencer Johnson dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 41.3% break avg.
- Spencer Johnson is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Jan Kobierski | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.7 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-13 | 13.5-11 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 60.7% | 74% |
| Break % | 38.2% | 41.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan Kobierski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | John Hallquist Lithen M15 Wels |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Max Wiskandt M25 Kramsach |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 23/06 | David Naharro M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 30/12 | Aditya Govila UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/12 | Stiles Brockett UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 27/12 | Adrian Treacy UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 25/10 | Clement Lemire UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/10 | Ethan Muza UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 24/10 | Nicolas Oliveira UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 23/10 | Simon Caldwell UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
Spencer Johnson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Erik Arutiunian Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/09 | Vignesh Gogineni Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Cristian Garin US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 08/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 07/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Moez Echargui Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/08 | Ryan Colby Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 02/08 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Coleman Wong Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan Kobierski vs Spencer Johnson?
Our model gives 77% to Spencer Johnson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.