Tennis · Challenger San Diego · 21/09, 00:30
Prediction: Andrew Johnson vs Sebastian Gorzny
Team pages: Andrew Johnson · Sebastian Gorzny
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrew Johnson
Sebastian Gorzny
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Andrew Johnson
4-6 (W-L)
Sebastian Gorzny
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrew Johnson 1530 · Sebastian Gorzny 1496
| Andrew Johnson | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Sebastian Gorzny dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 46.5% break avg.
- Note: Sebastian Gorzny makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Andrew Johnson | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.3-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-10.1 | 14.3-13.8 |
| Aces | 1 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 62.8% | 68% |
| Break % | 52.9% | 46.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrew Johnson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Liam Draxl US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Taro Daniel US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Kaylan Bigun M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Spencer Johnson M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 12/06 | Benjamin O'Connell M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/06 | Lucca Liu M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/06 | Timofey Stepanov M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-8 | W |
| 30/04 | Andreja Petrovic M15 Orange Park · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Gavin Goode M15 Orange Park · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/04 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Savannah · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 17/09 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 31/08 | Raphael Collignon US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-24 | W |
| 24/08 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 23/08 | Felix Balshaw ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 22/08 | Marc Polmans ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Axel Nefve M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 07/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrew Johnson vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Our model gives 60% to Sebastian Gorzny, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.