Tennis · WTA Sao Paulo · 17/09, 19:30
Prediction: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Paula Badosa
Team pages: Jazmin Ortenzi · Paula Badosa
Prediction summary
Winner
Jazmin Ortenzi
Paula Badosa
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Jazmin Ortenzi
4-6 (W-L)
Paula Badosa
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jazmin Ortenzi 1479 · Paula Badosa 1581
| Jazmin Ortenzi | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 10% | 90% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paula Badosa (rating 1479 vs 1581).
- Paula Badosa is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Paula Badosa makes many double faults (6.7/match).
Statistics
| Jazmin Ortenzi | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 86% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.5-10.2 | 13.2-10.3 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 6.7 |
| 1st serve % | 56.2% | 68% |
| Break % | 48.6% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jazmin Ortenzi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Chloe Paquet WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/09 | Mary Stoiana WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Himeno Sakatsume US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Katherine Sebov Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 18/06 | Elizara Yaneva WTA Brescia · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Francesca Pace WTA Brescia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Viola Turini WTA Modena · Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 04/06 | Marta Lombardini W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Beatrice Ricci W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Paula Badosa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Justina Mikulskyte WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Coco Gauff US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Daria Kasatkina US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/07 | Mayar Sherif WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 23/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/07 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 17/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/07 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jazmin Ortenzi vs Paula Badosa?
Our model gives 79% to Paula Badosa, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.