Tennis · WTA Sao Paulo · 18/09, 22:30
Prediction: Mary Stoiana vs Paula Badosa
Team pages: Mary Stoiana · Paula Badosa
Prediction summary
Winner
Mary Stoiana
Paula Badosa
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Mary Stoiana
7-3 (W-L)
Paula Badosa
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mary Stoiana 1558 · Paula Badosa 1565
| Mary Stoiana | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Paula Badosa makes many double faults (7/match).
Statistics
| Mary Stoiana | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-10.6 | 13.6-10.9 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 3 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 7 |
| 1st serve % | 63.8% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 50% | 43.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mary Stoiana
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Dominika Salkova WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/09 | Claire Liu WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Julia Riera WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 09/09 | Jazmin Ortenzi WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Alexandra Eala US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Yue Yuan US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Katie Swan US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/08 | Harmony Tan US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Oksana Selekhmeteva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
Paula Badosa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Jazmin Ortenzi WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 17/09 | Justina Mikulskyte WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Coco Gauff US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Daria Kasatkina US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/07 | Mayar Sherif WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 23/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/07 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 17/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/07 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mary Stoiana vs Paula Badosa?
Our model gives 59% to Paula Badosa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.