Tennis · WTA Valencia · 16/09, 14:30

Prediction: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Francesca Curmi

Team pages: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur · Francesca Curmi

Prediction summary

Winner

55% 45%

Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur Francesca Curmi

Estimated games

20.2

Recent form · 10 last

Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 9-1 (W-L)

WLWWWWWWWW

Francesca Curmi 5-5 (W-L)

LWLLWWWLLW

Head-to-head

Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 0–1 Francesca Curmi (1 last)

16 Jul0-2 3-12L

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 1574 · Francesca Curmi 1499

	Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur	Francesca Curmi
Our model	61%	39%
Market	50%	50%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur (rating 1574 vs 1499).
Head-to-head: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 0–1 Francesca Curmi (1).

Statistics

	Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur	Francesca Curmi
Win %	70%	50%
Win % · Clay	75% (4)	50% (2)
Sets (G-P)	1.7-0.7	1.2-1.1
Games (G-P)	12.6-7.9	11.1-9.7
Aces	0.7	0.4
Double faults	1.1	1.2
1st serve %	58.4%	58%
Break %	50.8%	53.6%

Estimated total games (ours) 20.2

H2H · Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 0 – 1 Francesca Curmi (1)

Odds Bet365

11.83

21.83

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	2
04:28 +7’	1.83	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 0–1 Francesca Curmi

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Sets	Games	Res.
16/07/26 W50 Darmstadt	0-2	3-12	L

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur

LLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
15/09	Charo Esquiva Banuls WTA Valencia · Clay	2-0	12-4	W
14/09	Dalila Spiteri WTA Valencia · Clay	2-0	13-7	W
13/09	Neus Torner Sensano WTA Valencia · Clay	2-0	12-4	W
08/09	Ariana Geerlings W35 Reus · ~Clay	1-2	12-16	L
29/08	Francesca Pace W50 Oldenzaal	1-2	14-13	L
28/08	Amandine Monnot W50 Oldenzaal	2-0	12-6	W
27/08	Tessa Johanna Brockmann W50 Oldenzaal	2-0	12-4	W
25/08	Yelyzaveta Kotliar W50 Oldenzaal	2-0	12-1	W
22/08	Valentina Steiner W35 Erwitte	1-2	11-13	L
21/08	Tessa Johanna Brockmann W35 Erwitte	2-1	16-11	W

Francesca Curmi

WLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
14/09	Veronika Erjavec WTA Valencia · Clay	2-1	14-9	W
07/09	Nuria Brancaccio WTA Montreux · Clay	0-2	9-13	L
01/08	Berfu Cengiz W100 Gran Canaria	1-2	13-14	L
31/07	Emma Lene W100 Gran Canaria	1-1	11-13	L
30/07	Carmen Gallardo Guevara W100 Gran Canaria	2-0	12-5	W
29/07	Francisca Jorge W100 Gran Canaria	2-0	12-2	W
23/07	Martina Trevisan W75 Cordenons	0-2	6-13	L
22/07	Katerina Tsygourova W75 Cordenons	2-1	17-12	W
21/07	Pia Lovric W75 Cordenons	2-0	12-4	W
18/07	Nastasja Schunk W50 Darmstadt	0-2	5-12	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Francesca Curmi?

Our model gives 55% to Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.