Tennis · M25 Nevers · 16/09, 16:45
Prediction: Valentin Lapalu vs Aidan Mchugh
Team pages: Valentin Lapalu · Aidan Mchugh
Prediction summary
Winner
Valentin Lapalu
Aidan Mchugh
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Valentin Lapalu
4-6 (W-L)
Aidan Mchugh
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valentin Lapalu 1460 · Aidan Mchugh 1529
| Valentin Lapalu | Aidan Mchugh | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aidan Mchugh (rating 1460 vs 1529).
Statistics
| Valentin Lapalu | Aidan Mchugh | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-11.8 | 12-10 |
| Aces | 2 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 60% | 66.7% |
| Break % | 35.7% | 45.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valentin Lapalu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Lucas Marionneau M15 Dublin |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Axel Garcian M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 01/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/05 | Jules Auffray UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 15/05 | Louka Krynen UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/05 | Jim Hendrikx UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 12/05 | Gabriel Jacquemin UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 11/05 | Lucas Bouquet UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/03 | Liam Krall UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/03 | Christopher Kosei Ono UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Aidan Mchugh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Leonardo Rossi M25 Pozzuoli |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | David Eichenseher M25 Pozzuoli |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/09 | Matteo Mesaglio M25 Pozzuoli |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/09 | Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei M25 Pozzuoli |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 06/05 | Gavin Goode M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/01 | Alexander Ritschard Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/01 | Joshua Sheehy Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 22/11 | Andreja Petrovic ITF M25 Austin · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 21/11 | Julian Alonso ITF M25 Austin · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/11 | Evan Burnett ITF M25 Austin · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valentin Lapalu vs Aidan Mchugh?
Our model gives 73% to Aidan Mchugh, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.