Tennis · WTA Sao Paulo · 16/09, 17:00
Prediction: Darja Semenistaja vs Hayu Kinoshita
Team pages: Darja Semenistaja · Hayu Kinoshita
Prediction summary
Winner
Darja Semenistaja
Hayu Kinoshita
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Darja Semenistaja
3-7 (W-L)
Hayu Kinoshita
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Darja Semenistaja
1–0
Hayu Kinoshita
(1 last)
- 25 Aug2-0 13-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Darja Semenistaja 1453 · Hayu Kinoshita 1469
| Darja Semenistaja | Hayu Kinoshita | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Darja Semenistaja 1–0 Hayu Kinoshita (1).
- Note: Hayu Kinoshita makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Darja Semenistaja | Hayu Kinoshita | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 0.7-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-13.1 | 10-11.6 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 53.8% | 57.8% |
| Break % | 38.7% | 49.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
H2H · Darja Semenistaja 1 – 0 Hayu Kinoshita (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Darja Semenistaja 1–0 Hayu Kinoshita
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/26 US Open Women | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Darja Semenistaja
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Anastasia Tikhonova WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 01/09 | Anastasia Potapova US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Storm Hunter US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Alexandra Shubladze US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/08 | Hayu Kinoshita US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/08 | Denislava Glushkova W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 28/07 | Mia Ristic WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Sinja Kraus WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/07 | Julia Riera WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 06/07 | Leyre Romero Gormaz WTA Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
Hayu Kinoshita
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Cadence Brace WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/09 | Victoria Rodriguez WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 03/09 | Oceane Dodin W50 Leiria |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 01/09 | Rebecca Munk Mortensen W50 Leiria |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Darja Semenistaja US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Kyoka Okamura WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Elvina Kalieva W100 Evansville |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Sakura Hosogi W75 Granby |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Iryna Shymanovich WTA Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Darja Semenistaja vs Hayu Kinoshita?
Our model gives 50% to Darja Semenistaja, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.