Tennis · WTA Sao Paulo · 14/09, 22:30
Prediction: Justina Mikulskyte vs Paula Badosa
Team pages: Justina Mikulskyte · Paula Badosa
Prediction summary
Winner
Justina Mikulskyte
Paula Badosa
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Justina Mikulskyte
4-6 (W-L)
Paula Badosa
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Justina Mikulskyte 1516 · Paula Badosa 1595
| Justina Mikulskyte | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 9% | 91% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paula Badosa (rating 1516 vs 1595).
- Paula Badosa is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Paula Badosa makes many double faults (6.6/match).
Statistics
| Justina Mikulskyte | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-10.9 | 13.4-10.8 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 6.6 |
| 1st serve % | 58.2% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 41.2% | 48.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Justina Mikulskyte
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Chloe Paquet WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/09 | Antonia Rivera WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/09 | Clara Burel W50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Nahia Berecoechea W50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 29/08 | Denisa Zoldakova W75 Bytom |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Ariana Geerlings W75 Bytom |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/08 | Federica Urgesi W75 Bytom |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Gina Feistel W75 Bytom |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/08 | Gabriela Knutson WTA Warsaw · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Warsaw · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Paula Badosa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Coco Gauff US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Daria Kasatkina US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/07 | Mayar Sherif WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 23/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/07 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 17/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/07 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/07 | Simona Waltert WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Justina Mikulskyte vs Paula Badosa?
Our model gives 78% to Paula Badosa, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.