Tennis · WTA Sao Paulo · 14/09, 19:00
Prediction: Xiaodi You vs Alina Charaeva
Team pages: Xiaodi You · Alina Charaeva
Prediction summary
Winner
Xiaodi You
Alina Charaeva
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Xiaodi You
4-6 (W-L)
Alina Charaeva
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Xiaodi You
1–1
Alina Charaeva
(2 last)
- 18 Feb0-2 10-13L
- 17 Jan2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Xiaodi You 1431 · Alina Charaeva 1515
| Xiaodi You | Alina Charaeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alina Charaeva (rating 1431 vs 1515).
- Alina Charaeva is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Xiaodi You makes many double faults (5.9/match).
- Note: Alina Charaeva makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Xiaodi You | Alina Charaeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (4) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.4-12 | 12.1-11.6 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 5.9 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 59.1% | 61.4% |
| Break % | 46.7% | 40.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
H2H · Xiaodi You 1 – 1 Alina Charaeva (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Xiaodi You 1–1 Alina Charaeva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/26 WTA Midland | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 17/01/25 ITF W50 La Marsa | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Xiaodi You
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Victoria Bosio WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/09 | Luiza Fullana WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/09 | Claire Liu WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Qinwen Zheng US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Ekaterine Gorgodze W100 Landisville |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Leolia Jeanjean Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo WTA Brescia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Leyre Romero Gormaz WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Leyre Romero Gormaz WTA Foggia · Clay |
1-2 | 8-18 | L |
| 28/05 | Lisa Zaar W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Alina Charaeva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Susan Bandecchi US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 12/08 | Rebecca Marino WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/07 | Anna Bondar WTA Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Sinja Kraus WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 21/07 | Sara Sorribes Tormo WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 15/07 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 25/06 | Polina Kudermetova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 24/06 | Caroline Werner Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Xiaodi You vs Alina Charaeva?
Our model gives 64% to Alina Charaeva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.