Tennis · WTA Sao Paulo · 15/09, 16:00
Prediction: Mary Stoiana vs Claire Liu
Team pages: Mary Stoiana · Claire Liu
Prediction summary
Winner
Mary Stoiana
Claire Liu
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Mary Stoiana
7-3 (W-L)
Claire Liu
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mary Stoiana 1518 · Claire Liu 1559
| Mary Stoiana | Claire Liu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Claire Liu (rating 1518 vs 1559).
- Note: Mary Stoiana makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Mary Stoiana | Claire Liu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.5-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-11.3 | 11.2-8.2 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 65.9% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 52.7% | 53% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mary Stoiana
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Julia Riera WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 09/09 | Jazmin Ortenzi WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Alexandra Eala US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Yue Yuan US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Katie Swan US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/08 | Harmony Tan US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Oksana Selekhmeteva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 11/08 | Veronika Erjavec WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
Claire Liu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/09 | Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/09 | Varvara Lepchenko WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Xiaodi You WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Heather Watson US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 13/08 | Sinja Kraus WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Polina Iatcenko WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/07 | Ipek Oz WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/07 | Maria Sara Popa WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mary Stoiana vs Claire Liu?
Our model gives 53% to Claire Liu, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.