Tennis · WTA Sao Paulo · 15/09, 16:00
Prediction: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Nadia Podoroska
Team pages: Lucrezia Stefanini · Nadia Podoroska
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucrezia Stefanini
Nadia Podoroska
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lucrezia Stefanini
7-3 (W-L)
Nadia Podoroska
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lucrezia Stefanini
0–1
Nadia Podoroska
(1 last)
- 30 Mar0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucrezia Stefanini 1554 · Nadia Podoroska 1488
| Lucrezia Stefanini | Nadia Podoroska | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucrezia Stefanini (rating 1554 vs 1488).
- Lucrezia Stefanini is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Lucrezia Stefanini 0–1 Nadia Podoroska (1).
- Note: Nadia Podoroska makes many double faults (6/match).
Statistics
| Lucrezia Stefanini | Nadia Podoroska | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-8.9 | 11.9-11.9 |
| Aces | 0.3 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 6 |
| 1st serve % | 56.1% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 57.5% | 35.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
H2H · Lucrezia Stefanini 0 – 1 Nadia Podoroska (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lucrezia Stefanini 0–1 Nadia Podoroska
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/24 WTA San Luis Potosi | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucrezia Stefanini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Jasmine Paolini US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Dayana Yastremska US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 27/08 | Julieta Pareja US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/08 | Madison Brengle US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Ayla Aksu US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Sofia Kenin WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Nadia Podoroska
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Anna Blinkova WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 08/09 | Ena Koike WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Iga Swiatek US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Simona Waltert US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 13/08 | Emiliana Arango WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Ella Seidel WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/07 | Andrea Lazaro Garcia W100 Gran Canaria |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Sara Cakarevic W100 Gran Canaria |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/07 | Julia Stusek WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 13/07 | Petra Marcinko WTA Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucrezia Stefanini vs Nadia Podoroska?
Our model gives 61% to Lucrezia Stefanini, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.