Tennis · WTA Valencia · 13/09, 15:00

Prediction: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Neus Torner Sensano

Team pages: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur · Neus Torner Sensano

Prediction summary

Winner

67% 33%

Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur Neus Torner Sensano

Estimated games

Recent form · 10 last

Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 8-2 (W-L)

LWWWLWWWWW

Neus Torner Sensano 5-5 (W-L)

LWWWLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 1–1 Neus Torner Sensano (2 last)

07 Nov2-0 13-6W
08 Oct0-2 7-13L

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 1532 · Neus Torner Sensano 1509

	Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur	Neus Torner Sensano
Our model	53%	47%
Market	78%	22%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Note: Neus Torner Sensano makes many double faults (8.1/match).

Statistics

	Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur	Neus Torner Sensano
Win %	60%	50%
Win % · Clay	0% (1)	67% (6)
Sets (G-P)	1.5-0.9	1.2-1.2
Games (G-P)	12.4-9.4	10.5-11.4
Aces	0.3	0.7
Double faults	1.4	8.1
1st serve %	57.1%	59.4%
Break %	55.3%	49.3%

Estimated total games (ours) 22

H2H · Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 1 – 1 Neus Torner Sensano (2)

Odds Bet365

11.20

24.33

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4%

Time*	1	2
22:31 +4’	1.20	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 1–1 Neus Torner Sensano

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
07/11/25 ITF W15 Castellon	2-0	13-6	W
08/10/25 ITF W35 Seville	0-2	7-13	L

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur

WWWLL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
08/09	Ariana Geerlings W35 Reus · ~Clay	1-2	12-16	L
29/08	Francesca Pace W50 Oldenzaal	1-2	14-13	L
28/08	Amandine Monnot W50 Oldenzaal	2-0	12-6	W
27/08	Tessa Johanna Brockmann W50 Oldenzaal	2-0	12-4	W
25/08	Yelyzaveta Kotliar W50 Oldenzaal	2-0	12-1	W
22/08	Valentina Steiner W35 Erwitte	1-2	11-13	L
21/08	Tessa Johanna Brockmann W35 Erwitte	2-1	16-11	W
20/08	Milena Steinkamp W35 Erwitte	2-0	13-7	W
18/08	Ruth Roura Llaverias W35 Erwitte	2-0	14-10	W
14/08	Dalila Jakupovic W35 Bydgoszcz	0-2	8-13	L

Neus Torner Sensano

LWLLL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
08/09	Diletta Cherubini W35 Reus · ~Clay	1-2	11-17	L
26/08	Sayaka Ishii W15 Torello · ~Hard	0-2	7-13	L
23/07	Charo Esquiva Banuls W50 Horb	0-2	5-12	L
22/07	Maria Toma W50 Horb	2-1	15-15	W
05/07	Lisa Claeys W15 Getxo · ~Clay	1-2	12-15	L
04/07	Amelie Van Impe W15 Getxo · ~Clay	2-1	19-17	W
03/07	Ruth Roura Llaverias W15 Getxo · ~Clay	2-0	12-6	W
02/07	Eva Alvarez Sande W15 Getxo · ~Clay	2-0	12-3	W
01/07	Claudia Ferrer Perez W15 Getxo · ~Clay	2-0	12-5	W
12/06	Carmen Gallardo Guevara W15 Madrid	0-2	0-11	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Neus Torner Sensano?

Our model gives 67% to Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.