Tennis · UTR Pro Knoxville Women · 11/09, 17:00
Prediction: Francesca Mattioli vs Riley Crowder
Team pages: Francesca Mattioli · Riley Crowder
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesca Mattioli
Riley Crowder
Estimated games
20.4
Recent form · 10 last
Francesca Mattioli
6-4 (W-L)
Riley Crowder
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesca Mattioli 1527 · Riley Crowder 1480
| Francesca Mattioli | Riley Crowder | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francesca Mattioli (rating 1527 vs 1480).
- Note: Francesca Mattioli makes many double faults (6.6/match).
- Note: Riley Crowder makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| Francesca Mattioli | Riley Crowder | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 0.9-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-8 | 10.1-11.3 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 6.6 | 5.8 |
| 1st serve % | 62.4% | 59.3% |
| Break % | 56.2% | 51.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesca Mattioli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Joanna Kennedy UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 08/09 | Emmie Moore UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 07/09 | Saray Yli-Piipari UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 31/07 | Giorgia Pedone W35 Pergamino |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Justina Maria Gonzalez Daniele W35 Pergamino |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Rebeca Pereira W35 Pergamino |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/07 | Lucciana Perez Alarcon W75 Vacaria |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Alisa Danilova W75 Vacaria |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano W75 Vacaria |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/07 | Mia Popovic W75 Vacaria |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Riley Crowder
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Emmie Moore UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Saray Yli-Piipari UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Joanna Kennedy UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Audrey Aulia UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Brooke Lynn Schafer UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/08 | Sydney Jara UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Monika Wojcik UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 11/08 | Lexie Weir UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Eunhye Lee W35 Southaven |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Alana Boyce UTR Pro Tallahassee Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesca Mattioli vs Riley Crowder?
Our model gives 65% to Francesca Mattioli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.