Tennis · Challenger Cassis · 07/09, 10:00
Prediction: Moez Echargui vs Lucas Poullain
Team pages: Moez Echargui · Lucas Poullain
Prediction summary
Winner
Moez Echargui
Lucas Poullain
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Moez Echargui
5-5 (W-L)
Lucas Poullain
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Moez Echargui
1–1
Lucas Poullain
(2 last)
- 22 Apr2-0 12-8W
- 10 Dec1-2 12-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Moez Echargui 1441 · Lucas Poullain 1621
| Moez Echargui | Lucas Poullain | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 74% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucas Poullain (rating 1441 vs 1621).
- Lucas Poullain is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Moez Echargui | Lucas Poullain | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-12.6 | 13.4-8.4 |
| Aces | 3 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 0.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.5% | 69% |
| Break % | 34.5% | 50% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
H2H · Moez Echargui 1 – 1 Lucas Poullain (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Moez Echargui 1–1 Lucas Poullain
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/25 Challenger Abidjan | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/12/20 M15 Monastir | 1-2 | 12-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moez Echargui
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Manacor · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Hugo Dellien US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Moise Kouame Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 19/08 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Andres Martin ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Jordan Lee ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 20/07 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Lucas Poullain
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Lui Maxted Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Michael Geerts Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 19/08 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/08 | Max Basing Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/08 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 08/08 | Gijs Brouwer Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 07/08 | Kenta Miyoshi Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Dan Added Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moez Echargui vs Lucas Poullain?
Our model gives 59% to Lucas Poullain, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.