Prediction: Blake Ellis vs Hayden Jones
Team pages: Blake Ellis · Hayden Jones
Prediction summary
Winner
Blake Ellis
Hayden Jones
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Blake Ellis
5-5 (W-L)
Hayden Jones
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Blake Ellis
2–0
Hayden Jones
(2 last)
- 14 Jul2-0 13-7W
- 15 Mar2-1 18-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Blake Ellis 1488 · Hayden Jones 1606
| Blake Ellis | Hayden Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hayden Jones (rating 1488 vs 1606).
- Hayden Jones is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Blake Ellis 2–0 Hayden Jones (2).
- Note: Hayden Jones makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Blake Ellis | Hayden Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.6-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-12.9 | 11.2-7.7 |
| Aces | 7.2 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 31.6% | 42.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
H2H · Blake Ellis 2 – 0 Hayden Jones (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Blake Ellis 2–0 Hayden Jones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/26 M25 Brisbane | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/03/24 ITF M25 Mildura | 2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Blake Ellis
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Reece Falck M15 Bali |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Duje Markovina M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Joshua Charlton M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Benjamin O'Connell M25 Brisbane |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Hayden Jones M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/07 | Garrett Johns Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Ozan Baris Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 16/06 | Enzo Aguiard M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 11/06 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
Hayden Jones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Eric Tripathi UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Derek Pham UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Oscar Andrews UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Jacob Cairncross UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/08 | Omar Jasika UTR Pro Brisbane · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/08 | Scott Jones UTR Pro Brisbane · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 05/08 | Thomas Nicholas Gadecki UTR Pro Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Brendan Loh UTR Pro Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/08 | Marcus Schoeman UTR Pro Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Jeremy Zhang M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 3-9 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Blake Ellis vs Hayden Jones?
Our model gives 51% to Hayden Jones, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.