Tennis · M15 Nonthaburi · 02/09, 05:00
Prediction: Adrian Arcon vs Chen Dong
Team pages: Adrian Arcon · Chen Dong
Prediction summary
Winner
Adrian Arcon
Chen Dong
Estimated games
19.8
Recent form · 10 last
Adrian Arcon
3-7 (W-L)
Chen Dong
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adrian Arcon 1530 · Chen Dong 1447
| Adrian Arcon | Chen Dong | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adrian Arcon (rating 1530 vs 1447).
- Adrian Arcon is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Adrian Arcon | Chen Dong | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 29% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 0.7-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.6-9.4 | 7.5-9.7 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 62.5% | 60.7% |
| Break % | 31.3% | 41.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adrian Arcon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Yuki Ikeda M15 Nonthaburi · ~Hard |
2-1 | 10-11 | W |
| 30/08 | Tachatam Srisen M15 Nonthaburi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Fanming Meng M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Shintaro Imai M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 11/08 | Yuquan Jin M15 Tianjin |
1-0 | 6-1 | W |
| 28/07 | Elijah Cham M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Hiromasa Koyama M15 Harmon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Leo Hsu M15 Harmon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/05 | Robert Strombachs M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Ethan Terblanche M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
Chen Dong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Tai Leonard Sach M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 21/07 | Shinji Hazawa M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Benjamin O'Connell M25 Brisbane |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/04 | Emile Hudd M15 Singapore · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/03 | Sergey Petrov M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/03 | Fanming Meng M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/01 | Remy Dugardin M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-1 | 4-6 | L |
| 26/12 | Nicolas Tepmahc M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-1 | 2-6 | L |
| 25/12 | Kazuki Nishiwaki M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/12 | Florent Bax M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 10-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adrian Arcon vs Chen Dong?
Our model gives 57% to Chen Dong, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.