Tennis · M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 25/08, 10:30
Prediction: Mario Arce Fernandez vs Ognjen Jagrovic
Team pages: Mario Arce Fernandez · Ognjen Jagrovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Mario Arce Fernandez
Ognjen Jagrovic
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mario Arce Fernandez
4-6 (W-L)
Ognjen Jagrovic
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mario Arce Fernandez
1–0
Ognjen Jagrovic
(1 last)
- 18 Aug2-1 8-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mario Arce Fernandez 1502 · Ognjen Jagrovic 1413
| Mario Arce Fernandez | Ognjen Jagrovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mario Arce Fernandez (rating 1502 vs 1413).
- Mario Arce Fernandez is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Mario Arce Fernandez 1–0 Ognjen Jagrovic (1).
Statistics
| Mario Arce Fernandez | Ognjen Jagrovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (3) | 13% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 0.6-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.4-9.9 | 8.6-11.4 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 0 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 63.9% | 57.3% |
| Break % | 41.3% | 33.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
H2H · Mario Arce Fernandez 1 – 0 Ognjen Jagrovic (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mario Arce Fernandez 1–0 Ognjen Jagrovic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/26 M15 Kursumlijska Banja | 2-1 | 8-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mario Arce Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Dmitry Bessonov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Ognjen Jagrovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 8-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Carlos Lopez Montagud M15 Xativa |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Filippo Mazzola M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 10-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Xavier Ferrer Mateo M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/07 | Pedro Rodenas M25 Denia |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Denia |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 21/07 | Edouard Villoslada M25 Denia |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Gandia |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 08/07 | Anton Arzhankin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Ognjen Jagrovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Mario Arce Fernandez M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 8-8 | L |
| 26/05 | Pablo Aunion M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/01 | Bence Boros UTR Pro Beograd · Clay |
1-2 | 9-17 | L |
| 05/12 | Joshua Oakley UTR Pro Beograd · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/12 | Obrad Markovski UTR Pro Beograd · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/12 | Semen Pankin UTR Pro Beograd · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/11 | John Hallquist Lithen M25 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/11 | Alessio Basile M25 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 04/10 | Marko Maric UTR Pro Beograd · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/10 | Tomas Farjat UTR Pro Beograd · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mario Arce Fernandez vs Ognjen Jagrovic?
Our model gives 76% to Mario Arce Fernandez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.