Tennis · M15 Maanshan · 26/08, 04:00
Prediction: Qian Sun vs Petr Bar Biryukov
Team pages: Qian Sun · Petr Bar Biryukov
Prediction summary
Winner
Qian Sun
Petr Bar Biryukov
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Qian Sun
5-5 (W-L)
Petr Bar Biryukov
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Qian Sun 1428 · Petr Bar Biryukov 1565
| Qian Sun | Petr Bar Biryukov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Petr Bar Biryukov (rating 1428 vs 1565).
- Petr Bar Biryukov dominates on serve: 11.1 aces and 57.5% break avg.
- Petr Bar Biryukov is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Petr Bar Biryukov makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Qian Sun | Petr Bar Biryukov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 17% (6) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-12.3 | 12.2-9.6 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 11.1 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 67.3% | 79.9% |
| Break % | 41.9% | 57.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Qian Sun
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Tianhui Zhang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 13/08 | Yunseong Chung M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Yuta Kawahashi M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Hanlei Lu M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Yuta Kikuchi M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/07 | Shu Muto M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Yaojie Zeng M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 03/06 | Xiaoyin Yang M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 27/05 | Lachlan Mcfadzean M15 Luan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 24/05 | Noritaka Koizumi M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Petr Bar Biryukov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Kokoro Isomura M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/08 | Tianhui Zhang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/08 | James Van Herzeele M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 19/08 | Zhiheng Xia M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/08 | Jie Cui Challenger Astana · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Taisei Ichikawa Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Grigory Shebekin M15 Astana |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 01/08 | Damir Zhalgasbay M15 Astana |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Shunsuke Mitsui M15 Astana |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Saveliy Ivanov M15 Astana |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Qian Sun vs Petr Bar Biryukov?
Our model gives 76% to Petr Bar Biryukov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.